Research Area 5, Scenario development, provides scenario-driven knowledge and analyses to aid the development and evaluation of sustainable energy strategies.
This research area provides scenario-driven knowledge and analyses to the user partners in CenSES and to policy and decision makers to contribute to the development and evaluation of sustainable energy strategies. We design common scenarios for the other research areas in CenSES, using the cross-disciplinary knowledge in CenSES and including both quantitative and qualitative aspects. These CenSES scenarios will mainly be based upon Norwegian energy and climate policies and take EU policies into consideration. The research area also explores and demonstrates ways to combine life-cycle assessment and energy scenario modelling perspectives.
The first round of scenarios will be defined and analysed primarily with existing tools and knowledge from the research teams. The outcome of these scenarios as well as the experiences from the scenario process itself are used to identify missing or weak knowledge, methods or tools. These will be presented to the respective RAs as input to new research tasks and topics for further study. When improved knowledge or methods become available from the RAs, new and improved scenarios can be defined and analysed to exploit and test the new knowledge and methods.
5.1 Scenario definition and user interaction sets up scenarios to be analysed, specifying initial assumptions, limitations, methodologies etc. We quantify input data to the scenario analysis, mainly based on knowledge and results from other RAs and update the existing survey of relevant energy scenario studies.
5.2 Scenario analysis and supervision performs dedicated scenario analyses in collaboration with other RAs and research partners, using available methodologies and tools. We identify new methods and tools required to improve the knowledge about environmentally friendly energy systems.
5.3 Combined LCA and energy scenario modelling investigates options for developing energy systems with radically reduced environmental impacts and for dealing with intermittent energy supply from renewables from a life-cycle perspective. The scenario-based hybrid life-cycle assessment and economic input-output model THEMIS will be advanced by strengthening its hybrid model character, improving the operability and analysis functions and expanding the coverage of future technological change. We improve the link between THEMIS and energy system modelling and study how including life-cycle energy use and environmental impacts affects the choice of energy technologies by energy system models.
5.4 Scenario dissemination and networking is concerned with the dissemination of completed CenSES funded and external scenario studies in relevant forums, including dissemination of comparative results across different scenario studies. Some studies are mostly of internal interest, while others are publishable in international journals.