Future market structures and prices

 

It is challenging to forecast future prices in the power market, and this problem area could have been a Work Package or even a FME in itself. Because the size of this project is limited, we have to rely to a large extent on earlier work.

The primary goal is to utilize models, market simulations and existing literature and data to provide information about future market products, prices and structures used in revenue calculations and investment analysis.

Secondary, the objective is to develop a set of scenarios that can be used in analyses. The scenarios should consist of simultaneous market prices for day-ahead, intraday and balancing market prices and a qualitative description, giving the reason for the represented price characteristics (important drivers and requirements).

Value potential

This project makes price inputs to other projects within the work package. This information will be used to focus model development and technical innovations in the correct direction and is therefore important for the overall goal which is to develop concepts, methods and prototypes that will make the utilities able to make better founded investment decisions. This is beneficial for the specific utilities and for the whole society.

Will combine modeling with scenario studies

To simulate future operation, calculate revenues and evaluate environmental consequences, stochastic price models for all the different products are needed. Stochastic modelling is typically not included in more high-level scenario studies but is important for detailed studies of individual hydro systems. 

Of course, it is not known with certainty what the future products will be, but one could assume some generic type products (e.g. capacity, energy and short-term balancing) which each has different prices. SINTEF was in 2017 granted a research project, PriBas that addresses this problem from a fundamental modelling point of view. PriBas will give important input to the whole WP and this project in particular.

HydroCen Report nr. 1

Future Market Structures  and Prices - Workshop summary. Linn Emelie SchäfferThe purpose of the workshop was to improve the participants understanding of the value of Norwegian hydropower, the expected changes in value and the main drivers for change. This include, but is not limited to, the development of prices, services and market structures.

 

 

 

HydroCen Report nr. 5

Power Price Scenarios -  Results from the Reference scenario and the Low Emission scenario. Linn Emelie Schäffer and Ingeborg Graabak. The aim of the research described in this report is to show and quantify variation in power prices in Northern Europe in 2030. The background for this study is the need for reduction of green-house-gases (GHG) emissions and EUs policy for transforming the energy system and in particular the power system to low carbon systems.

 

Publications 2019

Graabak, M. Korpås, S.Jaehnert, M. BelsnesBalancing future variable wind and solar power in Central-West Europe with Norwegian hydropower. Energy, Volume 168, 1 Februar 2019, Pages 870-882.

Conference Proceedings 2019

Linn Emelie Schäffer, Birger Mo. Electricity Prices and Value of Flexible Generation in Northern Europe in 2030. 17 th International Conference on the European Energy Market. 

Conference Proceedings 2018

Mo, Birger; Helseth, Arild; Warland, Geir. Modeling and Quantifying the Importance of Snow Storage Information for the Nordic Power System. I: 2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market - EEM. IEEE conference proceedings 2018 ISBN 978-1-5386-1488-4. ENERGISINT

Contact

Birger Mo

Birger Mo

Senior Research Scientist

E-mail: Birger.Mo@sintef.no

Phone: 930 86 693

About the project

Full project title:  Future market structures and prices

Duration: 2016-2019

Objective: The goal is to utilize models, market simulations and existing literature and data to provide information about future market products, prices and structures used in revenue calculations and investment analysis (WP3.3).

Researchers working on the project: Birger Mo, Linn Emelie Schaffer, Ove Wolfgang, Ingeborg Graabak, Arild Henden.

R&D Partners: SINTEF Energi, NINA and NTNU

Associated projects: IBM - Integrated Balancing Markets in Hydropower Scheduling Methods (KPN project, 2014-2018), e-Highway2050. HydroBalance.