sustainable-scenarios-and-indicators

Pathways to Sustainable Development:
Scenarios for Energy Transition Acceleration

Recent reports, like the UNEP Gap reports, show that the temperature will rise far above the Paris Agreement goals unless countries deliver more than they have promised. The global stocktake at COP28 recognizes the science that indicates global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Also, it states that current progress is insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement goals. At the same time, there is an increased focus on other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that need to be addressed in parallel with the climate challenge.

In this workshop, we will take three perspectives on the need for revised strategies and the roles of models and sustainability analyses in the process:

The global perspective on climate strategies, including international cooperation, geopolitical tension, trade wars, and their welfare effects.
The European energy system and the role of decarbonization of industry and transport in European climate policy.
Quantitative and qualitative analyses of concurrent achievement of SDGs.

Conclusion

The workshop concluded with a strong consensus on the need for a multifaceted approach to accelerate the EU's energy transition. The discussions not only underscored the challenges but also illuminated the opportunities that lie ahead in leveraging technological innovation and adaptive policy frameworks. The insights gained from the workshop aim to inspire continued collaboration and action towards achieving a sustainable and resilient energy future for Europe.

To learn more about the workshop outcomes or to engage in ongoing discussions, visitors are encouraged to reach out through the provided contact information.

Program:

09:00 – 09:15

Welcome and Setting the Scene

Asgeir Tomasgard (NTNU)

09:15 – 10:15

Framing of the Day: The global stocktake process indicates that it is easy to state ambitious goals, but how can these be followed up by policies and measures as well as action.

EU climate policy and status on emission reductions, Edgar Hertwich (NTNU) 15 min +3 min Q&A
What are the consequences of meeting and not-meeting the Paris goals—for climates, economies, and adaptation, Steven Rose (EPRI) 15 min + 3 min Q&A
Discussion and input from all

10:15 – 10:40

Coffee Break

10:40 – 12:15

Global Scenarios: The session focuses on the challenges related to an urgent need for increased ambition in climate actions toward Paris goals and how that is affected by changes in international cooperation, geopolitical tension, and the potential for trade wars. We look, in particular, at how today's models can address these issues and what answers they give. In addition, the discussion will address gaps in modelling capabilities.

Jae Edmonds (PNNL) 15 min + 3 min Q&A
Fadel Kebe, École supérieure polytechnique de l’université cheikh Anta Diop/ Ingeborg Graabak (SINTEF) 15 min + 3 min Q&A
A Latin American perspective: Insights from Bolivian decarbonization pathways, Pedro Crespo del Granado (NTNU) 15 min + 3 min Q&A

Interventions

James McFarland (EPA) 3 min

Discussion

12:15 – 13:00

Lunch

13:00 – 14:30

European Scenarios: In the European Union, decarbonization strategies for energy, industry, and transport after the Ukraine war face the additional challenge of scarcity of energy resources, security of supply considerations, and an increased focus on affordability. In this session, we address how today's state-of-the-art energy system models and frameworks address these challenges and also what are the current gaps in capabilities.

Developing European Transition Scenarios – Latest, trends, insights and assessments, Franziska Hoffart (SOFI Göttingen & DIW Berlin) and Mostafa Barani (NTNU) 15 min + 3 min Q&A
The Energy Transition in Germany and RePowerEU, Christian von Hirschhausen (TU Berlin) 15 min + 3 min Q&A
Scenarios of the European and Climate Modelling Forum, Will Usher (KTH) 15 min + 3min Q&A

Interventions

Mari Grooss Viddal (Statkraft), European perspectives 3 min
Konstantin Loffler (TU Berlin) 3 min

Discussion

14:30 – 15:00

Break

15:00 – 16:25

Sustainability, Economic and Environmental Indicators from Scenario Studies: The energy transition has to take into account the embeddedness of the energy system in the (global, national, regional) socio-economic frame, not only due the far-reaching ecological, social and economic effects of the transformation. The socio-economic frame is on the one hand the main driver of the transformation process, but on the other hand it sets boundaries for amongst others policies and investment decisions. A comprehensive analysis of the different factors with the aim to identify sustainable transformation pathways is required. This session will discuss the current state-of-the-art of energy scenario-based sustainability assessment.

Methodology for the evaluation of social, environmental, and energy indicators beyond the energy system models. Witold-Roger Poganietz (KIT) 15 min + 3 min Q&A
What indicators are of interest to stakeholders/ Methodologies for sustainability evaluations. Reinhard Madlener (RWTH Aachen) 15 min + 3 min Q&A
Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses approaches on Scenario studies, Matthias Gähl (Forschungszentrum Jülich) 15 min + 3 min Q&A

Interventions

Rita Bouman (NTNU) 3 min
Antti Silvast (LUT) 3 min

Discussion

16:25 – 16:35

Closing and wrap up,

Asgeir Tomasgard (NTNU)

sustainable-scenarios-and-indicators notis

Practical information:

Thursday 14 March: 8:30 - 16:15

Moderated presentations, discussions, and breakout sessions.
Modified Chatham Rules
Location: Rådsalen
Estimated seats: 50
Organisers:
Asgeir Tomasgard, Jae Edmonds, Christian von Hirschhausen, Witold- Roger Poganietz and Pedro Crespo del Grandao