Risk Analysis in Aquaculture

Description

This research area focuses on identifying and modeling the key risks that affect profitability in the aquaculture industry. The goal is to improve decision-making by developing robust forecasting tools for both financial and biological uncertainties.

Key Activities and Methods

• Collect and prepare historical data on relevant financial and biological risks.
• Develop stochastic models for key financial risks such as salmon prices, feed costs, and exchange rates using tools like Kalman filters, Markov switching models, and Bayesian VAR.
• Model non-financial risks (e.g., disease, sea lice, mortality) and account for interdependence between risk factors through multivariate simulations.

Expected Outcomes

• A suite of calibrated risk models tailored to the aquaculture context.
• Improved understanding of how different risks interact and impact profitability.
• Foundations for risk-informed investment and operational decisions.