Morten Welde
About
Morten Welde works as a senior researcher at the Concept Research Programme which develops ways of improving the use of resources and enhancing the effects of major public investments. Prior to his engagement at the NTNU he worked at the Norwegian Public Roads Administration.
His research interests covers impact assessment and benefit-cost analyses; ex post evaluations; governance frameworks for public investments; and cost overruns and cost estimation methodologies.
He holds an MSc in Transport Economics from the University of Leeds, UK, and a PhD from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
Publications
2022
- Foroutan Mirhosseini, Seyedali; Pitera, Kelly; Odeck, James; Welde, Morten. (2022) Sustainable Project Management: Reducing the Risk of Cost Inaccuracy Using a PLS-SEM Approach. Sustainability. volum 14 (2).
- Volden, Gro Holst; Welde, Morten. (2022) Public project success? Measuring the nuances of success through ex post evaluation. International Journal of Project Management. volum 40 (6).
- Welde, Morten; Klakegg, Ole Jonny. (2022) Avoiding Cost Overrun Through Stochastic Cost Estimation and External Quality Assurance. IEEE transactions on engineering management.
- Welde, Morten; Volden, Gro Holst. (2022) Improving value for money through better front-end management: An attempt to reduce costs and increase user benefits in the planning of a motorway project. Case Studies on Transport Policy. volum 10 (3).
2021
- Jørgensen, Magne; Welde, Morten; Halkjelsvik, Torleif. (2021) Evaluation of Probabilistic Project Cost Estimates. IEEE transactions on engineering management.
- Welde, Morten; Dahl, Roy Endre Holsvik. (2021) Cost Escalation in Road Construction Contracts. Transportation Research Record. volum 2675 (9).
- Welde, Morten; Tveter, Eivind. (2021) The wider local impacts of new roads : a case study of 10 projects. Transport Policy. volum 115 (January).
2020
- Andersen, Bjørn Sørskot; Finne, Håkon; Volden, Gro Holst; Ramstad, Lone Sletbakk; Welde, Morten. (2020) Økt samfunnsøkonomisk lønnsomhet ved bruk av prestasjonsinnkjøp?. Magma - Tidsskrift for økonomi og ledelse.
- Solvoll, Gisle; Mathisen, Terje Andreas; Welde, Morten. (2020) Forecasting air traffic demand for major infrastructure changes. Research in Transportation Economics. volum 82.
- Welde, Morten; Bråthen, Svein; Rekdal, Jens Ludvig; Zhang, Wei. (2020) Road investments and the trade-off between private and public funding. Research in Transportation Economics. volum 82 (October).
- Welde, Morten; Tveter, Eivind; Mork, Anne Gudrun. (2020) Vegprosjekter, verdiskaping og lokale mål. 2020. ISBN 978-82-93253-96-9. Concept rapport (62).
2019
- Samset, Knut Fredrik; Welde, Morten. (2019) Mandater for konseptvalgutredninger. En gjennomgang av praksis. 2019. ISBN 978-82-93253-79-2. Concept rapport (58).
- Welde, Morten; Jørgensen, Magne; Larssen, Per Fridtjof; Halkjelsvik, Torleif. (2019) Estimering av kostnader i store statlige prosjekter: Hvor gode er estimatene og usikkerhetsanalysene i KS2-rapportene?. 2019. ISBN 978-82-93253-81-5. Concept rapport (59).
- Welde, Morten; Tveter, Eivind; Odeck, James. (2019) The traffic effects of fixed links: Short and long-run forecast accuracy. Transportation Research Procedia. volum 42.
2018
- Welde, Morten; Dahl, Roy Endre; Torp, Olav; Aass, Torbjørn. (2018) Kostnadsstyring i entreprisekontrakter. 2018. ISBN 978-82-93253-71-6. Concept rapport (55).
- Welde, Morten; Volden, Gro Holst. (2018) Measuring efficiency and effectiveness through ex-post evaluation: Case studies of Norwegian transport projects. Research in Transportation Business and Management (RTBM). volum 28.
2017
- David, Meunier; Welde, Morten. (2017) Ex-post evaluations in Norway and France. Transportation Research Procedia. volum 26.
- Elvik, Rune; Ulstein, Heidi; Wifstad, Kristina; Syrstad, Ragnhild S; Seeberg, Aase R; Gulbrandsen, Magnus U; Welde, Morten. (2017) An Empirical Bayes before-after evaluation of road safety effects of a new motorway in Norway. Accident Analysis and Prevention. volum 108 (November).
- Love, Peter; Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic; Welde, Morten; Odeck, James. (2017) Light rail transit cost performance: Opportunities for future proofing. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. volum 100.
- Odeck, James; Welde, Morten. (2017) The accuracy of toll road traffic forecasts : an econometric evaluation. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. volum 101 (July).
- Tveter, Eivind; Welde, Morten; Odeck, James. (2017) Do fixed links affect settlement patterns : a synthetic control approach. Research in Transportation Economics. volum 63.
- Welde, Morten. (2017) Kostnadskontroll i store statlige investeringer underlagt ordningen med ekstern kvalitetssikring. 2017. ISBN 978-82-93253-59-4. Concept rapport (51).
- Welde, Morten; Odeck, James. (2017) Cost escalations in the front-end of projects – empirical evidence from Norwegian road projects. Transport reviews. volum 37 (5).
2016
- Andersen, Bjørn Sørskot; Samset, Knut Fredrik; Welde, Morten. (2016) Low estimates – high stakes: underestimation of costs at the front-end of projects. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business. volum 9 (1).
- Welde, Morten; Bråthen, Svein; Rekdal, Jens Ludvig; Zhang, Wei. (2016) Finansiering av vegprosjekter med bompenger : behandling av og konsekvenser av bompenger i samfunnsøkonomiske analyser. 2016. ISBN 978-82-93253-55-6. Concept rapport (49).
2015
- Eliasson, Jonas; Börjesson, Maria; Odeck, James; Welde, Morten. (2015) Does Benefit–Cost Efficiency Influence Transport Investment Decisions?. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy. volum 49 (3).
- Odeck, James; Welde, Morten. (2015) Ressursbruk i transportsektoren – noen mulige forbedringer. Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet. 2015. ISBN 978-82-93253-42-6. Concept rapport (44).
- Odeck, James; Welde, Morten; Börjesson, Maria; Eliasson, Jonas. (2015) Brukes samfunnsøkonomiske analyser i prioritering av vegprosjekter? : en sammenlikning av Norge og Sverige. Samfunnsøkonomen. volum 129 (3).
- Odeck, James; Welde, Morten; Volden, Gro Holst. (2015) The impact of external quality assurance of costs estimates on cost overruns: Empirical evidence from the norwegian road sector. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. volum 15 (3).
- Welde, Morten; Aksdal, Jostein; Grindvoll, Inger Lise Tyholt. (2015) Kommunale investeringsprosjekter. Prosjektmodeller og krav til beslutningsunderlag. 2015. ISBN 978-82-93253-43-3. Concept rapport (45).
2014
- Börjesson, Maria; Eliasson, Jonas; Odeck, James; Welde, Morten. (2014) Spelar samhällsekonomisk lönsamhet någon roll för infrastrukturbeslut? En jämförelse mellan Sverige och Norge. Ekonomisk Debatt. volum 8 (42).
- Samset, Knut Fredrik; Volden, Gro Holst; Welde, Morten; Bull-Berg, Heidi. (2014) Mot sin hensikt. Perverse insentiver - om offentlige ivesteringsprosjekter som ikke forplikter. 2014. ISBN 978-82-93253-33-4. Concept rapport (40).
- Welde, Morten; Samset, Knut Fredrik; Andersen, Bjørn Sørskot; Austeng, Kjell. (2014) Lav prising – store valg En studie av underestimering av kostnader i prosjekters tidligfase. 2014. ISBN 978-82-93253-31-0. Concept rapport (Concept-rapport nr. 39).
2013
- Welde, Morten; Eliasson, Jonas; Odeck, James; Börjesson, Maria. (2013) Planprosesser,beregningsverktøy og bruk av nytte- kostnadsanalyser i vegsektor En sammenligning av praksis i Norge og Sverige. 2013. ISBN 978-82-93253-15-0. Concept rapport (33).
2012
- Welde, Morten. (2012) Are Smart Card Ticketing Systems Profitable? Evidence from the City of Trondheim. Journal of Public Transportation. volum 15 (1).
2011
- Welde, Morten. (2011) Demand and operating cost forecasting accuracy for toll road projects. Transport Policy. volum 18 (5).
- Welde, Morten. (2011) Essays on Cost Estimations and their Uncertainties in Transportation Projects. 2011. Doktoravhandlinger ved NTNU (2011-163).
- Welde, Morten; Odeck, James. (2011) Do Planners Get it Right? The Accuracy of Travel Demand Forecasting in Norway. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. volum 11 (1).
- Welde, Morten; Odeck, James. (2011) The efficiency of Norwegian road toll companies. Utilities Policy. volum 19 (3).
2010
- Meland, Solveig; Tretvik, Terje Kristian; Welde, Morten. (2010) The effects of removing the Trondheim toll cordon. Transport Policy. volum 17 (6).
- Odeck, James; Welde, Morten. (2010) Economic evaluation of intelligent transportation systems strategies: the case of the Oslo toll cordon. IET Intelligent Transport Systems. volum 4 (3).
Journal publications
- Foroutan Mirhosseini, Seyedali; Pitera, Kelly; Odeck, James; Welde, Morten. (2022) Sustainable Project Management: Reducing the Risk of Cost Inaccuracy Using a PLS-SEM Approach. Sustainability. volum 14 (2).
- Volden, Gro Holst; Welde, Morten. (2022) Public project success? Measuring the nuances of success through ex post evaluation. International Journal of Project Management. volum 40 (6).
- Welde, Morten; Klakegg, Ole Jonny. (2022) Avoiding Cost Overrun Through Stochastic Cost Estimation and External Quality Assurance. IEEE transactions on engineering management.
- Welde, Morten; Volden, Gro Holst. (2022) Improving value for money through better front-end management: An attempt to reduce costs and increase user benefits in the planning of a motorway project. Case Studies on Transport Policy. volum 10 (3).
- Jørgensen, Magne; Welde, Morten; Halkjelsvik, Torleif. (2021) Evaluation of Probabilistic Project Cost Estimates. IEEE transactions on engineering management.
- Welde, Morten; Dahl, Roy Endre Holsvik. (2021) Cost Escalation in Road Construction Contracts. Transportation Research Record. volum 2675 (9).
- Welde, Morten; Tveter, Eivind. (2021) The wider local impacts of new roads : a case study of 10 projects. Transport Policy. volum 115 (January).
- Andersen, Bjørn Sørskot; Finne, Håkon; Volden, Gro Holst; Ramstad, Lone Sletbakk; Welde, Morten. (2020) Økt samfunnsøkonomisk lønnsomhet ved bruk av prestasjonsinnkjøp?. Magma - Tidsskrift for økonomi og ledelse.
- Solvoll, Gisle; Mathisen, Terje Andreas; Welde, Morten. (2020) Forecasting air traffic demand for major infrastructure changes. Research in Transportation Economics. volum 82.
- Welde, Morten; Bråthen, Svein; Rekdal, Jens Ludvig; Zhang, Wei. (2020) Road investments and the trade-off between private and public funding. Research in Transportation Economics. volum 82 (October).
- Welde, Morten; Tveter, Eivind; Odeck, James. (2019) The traffic effects of fixed links: Short and long-run forecast accuracy. Transportation Research Procedia. volum 42.
- Welde, Morten; Volden, Gro Holst. (2018) Measuring efficiency and effectiveness through ex-post evaluation: Case studies of Norwegian transport projects. Research in Transportation Business and Management (RTBM). volum 28.
- David, Meunier; Welde, Morten. (2017) Ex-post evaluations in Norway and France. Transportation Research Procedia. volum 26.
- Elvik, Rune; Ulstein, Heidi; Wifstad, Kristina; Syrstad, Ragnhild S; Seeberg, Aase R; Gulbrandsen, Magnus U; Welde, Morten. (2017) An Empirical Bayes before-after evaluation of road safety effects of a new motorway in Norway. Accident Analysis and Prevention. volum 108 (November).
- Love, Peter; Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic; Welde, Morten; Odeck, James. (2017) Light rail transit cost performance: Opportunities for future proofing. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. volum 100.
- Odeck, James; Welde, Morten. (2017) The accuracy of toll road traffic forecasts : an econometric evaluation. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. volum 101 (July).
- Tveter, Eivind; Welde, Morten; Odeck, James. (2017) Do fixed links affect settlement patterns : a synthetic control approach. Research in Transportation Economics. volum 63.
- Welde, Morten; Odeck, James. (2017) Cost escalations in the front-end of projects – empirical evidence from Norwegian road projects. Transport reviews. volum 37 (5).
- Andersen, Bjørn Sørskot; Samset, Knut Fredrik; Welde, Morten. (2016) Low estimates – high stakes: underestimation of costs at the front-end of projects. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business. volum 9 (1).
- Eliasson, Jonas; Börjesson, Maria; Odeck, James; Welde, Morten. (2015) Does Benefit–Cost Efficiency Influence Transport Investment Decisions?. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy. volum 49 (3).
- Odeck, James; Welde, Morten; Börjesson, Maria; Eliasson, Jonas. (2015) Brukes samfunnsøkonomiske analyser i prioritering av vegprosjekter? : en sammenlikning av Norge og Sverige. Samfunnsøkonomen. volum 129 (3).
- Odeck, James; Welde, Morten; Volden, Gro Holst. (2015) The impact of external quality assurance of costs estimates on cost overruns: Empirical evidence from the norwegian road sector. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. volum 15 (3).
- Börjesson, Maria; Eliasson, Jonas; Odeck, James; Welde, Morten. (2014) Spelar samhällsekonomisk lönsamhet någon roll för infrastrukturbeslut? En jämförelse mellan Sverige och Norge. Ekonomisk Debatt. volum 8 (42).
- Welde, Morten. (2012) Are Smart Card Ticketing Systems Profitable? Evidence from the City of Trondheim. Journal of Public Transportation. volum 15 (1).
- Welde, Morten. (2011) Demand and operating cost forecasting accuracy for toll road projects. Transport Policy. volum 18 (5).
- Welde, Morten; Odeck, James. (2011) Do Planners Get it Right? The Accuracy of Travel Demand Forecasting in Norway. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. volum 11 (1).
- Welde, Morten; Odeck, James. (2011) The efficiency of Norwegian road toll companies. Utilities Policy. volum 19 (3).
- Meland, Solveig; Tretvik, Terje Kristian; Welde, Morten. (2010) The effects of removing the Trondheim toll cordon. Transport Policy. volum 17 (6).
- Odeck, James; Welde, Morten. (2010) Economic evaluation of intelligent transportation systems strategies: the case of the Oslo toll cordon. IET Intelligent Transport Systems. volum 4 (3).
Report/dissertation
- Welde, Morten. (2011) Essays on Cost Estimations and their Uncertainties in Transportation Projects. 2011. Doktoravhandlinger ved NTNU (2011-163).
Books
- Welde, Morten; Tveter, Eivind; Mork, Anne Gudrun. (2020) Vegprosjekter, verdiskaping og lokale mål. 2020. ISBN 978-82-93253-96-9. Concept rapport (62).
- Samset, Knut Fredrik; Welde, Morten. (2019) Mandater for konseptvalgutredninger. En gjennomgang av praksis. 2019. ISBN 978-82-93253-79-2. Concept rapport (58).
- Welde, Morten; Jørgensen, Magne; Larssen, Per Fridtjof; Halkjelsvik, Torleif. (2019) Estimering av kostnader i store statlige prosjekter: Hvor gode er estimatene og usikkerhetsanalysene i KS2-rapportene?. 2019. ISBN 978-82-93253-81-5. Concept rapport (59).
- Welde, Morten; Dahl, Roy Endre; Torp, Olav; Aass, Torbjørn. (2018) Kostnadsstyring i entreprisekontrakter. 2018. ISBN 978-82-93253-71-6. Concept rapport (55).
- Welde, Morten. (2017) Kostnadskontroll i store statlige investeringer underlagt ordningen med ekstern kvalitetssikring. 2017. ISBN 978-82-93253-59-4. Concept rapport (51).
- Welde, Morten; Bråthen, Svein; Rekdal, Jens Ludvig; Zhang, Wei. (2016) Finansiering av vegprosjekter med bompenger : behandling av og konsekvenser av bompenger i samfunnsøkonomiske analyser. 2016. ISBN 978-82-93253-55-6. Concept rapport (49).
- Odeck, James; Welde, Morten. (2015) Ressursbruk i transportsektoren – noen mulige forbedringer. Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet. 2015. ISBN 978-82-93253-42-6. Concept rapport (44).
- Welde, Morten; Aksdal, Jostein; Grindvoll, Inger Lise Tyholt. (2015) Kommunale investeringsprosjekter. Prosjektmodeller og krav til beslutningsunderlag. 2015. ISBN 978-82-93253-43-3. Concept rapport (45).
- Samset, Knut Fredrik; Volden, Gro Holst; Welde, Morten; Bull-Berg, Heidi. (2014) Mot sin hensikt. Perverse insentiver - om offentlige ivesteringsprosjekter som ikke forplikter. 2014. ISBN 978-82-93253-33-4. Concept rapport (40).
- Welde, Morten; Samset, Knut Fredrik; Andersen, Bjørn Sørskot; Austeng, Kjell. (2014) Lav prising – store valg En studie av underestimering av kostnader i prosjekters tidligfase. 2014. ISBN 978-82-93253-31-0. Concept rapport (Concept-rapport nr. 39).
- Welde, Morten; Eliasson, Jonas; Odeck, James; Börjesson, Maria. (2013) Planprosesser,beregningsverktøy og bruk av nytte- kostnadsanalyser i vegsektor En sammenligning av praksis i Norge og Sverige. 2013. ISBN 978-82-93253-15-0. Concept rapport (33).