Morten Welde
Background and activities
Morten Welde works as a senior researcher at the Concept Research Programme which develops ways of improving the use of resources and enhancing the effects of major public investments. Prior to his engagement at the NTNU he worked at the Norwegian Public Roads Administration.
His research interests covers impact assessment and benefit-cost analyses; ex post evaluations; governance frameworks for public investments; and cost overruns and cost estimation methodologies.
He holds an MSc in Transport Economics from the University of Leeds, UK, and a PhD from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
Scientific, academic and artistic work
Displaying a selection of activities. See all publications in the database
2021
- (2021) Evaluation of Probabilistic Project Cost Estimates. IEEE transactions on engineering management.
- (2021) Cost Escalation in Road Construction Contracts. Transportation Research Record. vol. 2675 (9).
- (2021) The wider local impacts of new roads : a case study of 10 projects. Transport Policy. vol. 115 (January).
2020
- (2020) Økt samfunnsøkonomisk lønnsomhet ved bruk av prestasjonsinnkjøp?. Magma - Tidsskrift for økonomi og ledelse.
- (2020) Forecasting air traffic demand for major infrastructure changes. Research in Transportation Economics. vol. 82.
- (2020) Road investments and the trade-off between private and public funding. Research in Transportation Economics. vol. 82 (October).
- (2020) Vegprosjekter, verdiskaping og lokale mål. 2020. ISBN 978-82-93253-96-9. Concept rapport (62).
2019
- (2019) Mandater for konseptvalgutredninger. En gjennomgang av praksis. 2019. ISBN 978-82-93253-79-2. Concept rapport (58).
- (2019) Estimering av kostnader i store statlige prosjekter: Hvor gode er estimatene og usikkerhetsanalysene i KS2-rapportene?. 2019. ISBN 978-82-93253-81-5. Concept rapport (59).
- (2019) The traffic effects of fixed links: Short and long-run forecast accuracy. Transportation Research Procedia. vol. 42.
2018
- (2018) Kostnadsstyring i entreprisekontrakter. 2018. ISBN 978-82-93253-71-6. Concept rapport (55).
- (2018) Measuring efficiency and effectiveness through ex-post evaluation: Case studies of Norwegian transport projects. Research in Transportation Business and Management (RTBM). vol. 28.
2017
- (2017) Ex-post evaluations in Norway and France. Transportation Research Procedia. vol. 26.
- (2017) An Empirical Bayes before-after evaluation of road safety effects of a new motorway in Norway. Accident Analysis and Prevention. vol. 108 (November).
- (2017) Light rail transit cost performance: Opportunities for future proofing. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. vol. 100.
- (2017) The accuracy of toll road traffic forecasts : an econometric evaluation. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. vol. 101 (July).
- (2017) Do fixed links affect settlement patterns : a synthetic control approach. Research in Transportation Economics. vol. 63.
- (2017) Kostnadskontroll i store statlige investeringer underlagt ordningen med ekstern kvalitetssikring. 2017. ISBN 978-82-93253-59-4. Concept rapport (51).
- (2017) Cost escalations in the front-end of projects – empirical evidence from Norwegian road projects. Transport reviews. vol. 37 (5).
2016
- (2016) Low estimates – high stakes: underestimation of costs at the front-end of projects. International Journal of Managing Projects in Business. vol. 9 (1).
- (2016) Finansiering av vegprosjekter med bompenger : behandling av og konsekvenser av bompenger i samfunnsøkonomiske analyser. 2016. ISBN 978-82-93253-55-6. Concept rapport (49).
2015
- (2015) Does Benefit–Cost Efficiency Influence Transport Investment Decisions?. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy. vol. 49 (3).
- (2015) Ressursbruk i transportsektoren – noen mulige forbedringer. Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet. 2015. ISBN 978-82-93253-42-6. Concept rapport (44).
- (2015) Brukes samfunnsøkonomiske analyser i prioritering av vegprosjekter? : en sammenlikning av Norge og Sverige. Samfunnsøkonomen. vol. 129 (3).
- (2015) The impact of external quality assurance of costs estimates on cost overruns: Empirical evidence from the norwegian road sector. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. vol. 15 (3).
- (2015) Kommunale investeringsprosjekter. Prosjektmodeller og krav til beslutningsunderlag. 2015. ISBN 978-82-93253-43-3. Concept rapport (45).
2014
- (2014) Spelar samhällsekonomisk lönsamhet någon roll för infrastrukturbeslut? En jämförelse mellan Sverige och Norge. Ekonomisk Debatt. vol. 8 (42).
- (2014) Mot sin hensikt. Perverse insentiver - om offentlige ivesteringsprosjekter som ikke forplikter. 2014. ISBN 978-82-93253-33-4. Concept rapport (40).
- (2014) Lav prising – store valg En studie av underestimering av kostnader i prosjekters tidligfase. 2014. ISBN 978-82-93253-31-0. Concept rapport (Concept-rapport nr. 39).
2013
- (2013) Planprosesser,beregningsverktøy og bruk av nytte- kostnadsanalyser i vegsektor En sammenligning av praksis i Norge og Sverige. 2013. ISBN 978-82-93253-15-0. Concept rapport (33).
2012
- (2012) Are Smart Card Ticketing Systems Profitable? Evidence from the City of Trondheim. Journal of Public Transportation. vol. 15 (1).
2011
- (2011) Demand and operating cost forecasting accuracy for toll road projects. Transport Policy. vol. 18 (5).
- (2011) Essays on Cost Estimations and their Uncertainties in Transportation Projects. 2011. Doktoravhandlinger ved NTNU (2011-163).
- (2011) Do Planners Get it Right? The Accuracy of Travel Demand Forecasting in Norway. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. vol. 11 (1).
- (2011) The efficiency of Norwegian road toll companies. Utilities Policy. vol. 19 (3).