Course content

The course will include: (a) terminology used in risk assessment, (b) discussion of the sources and types of uncertainties in problems related to geohazards, (c) discussion of the potential benefits of a probabilistic compared to a deterministic approach, (d) review relevant statistical and probabilistic theories needed to develop the methodologies and to interprete the results of the probabilistic analyses, (e) describe some well established methods of probabilistic analysis as applied to geotechnical analysis, such as First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), event tree and logic tree construction, reliability of "systems" and (f) methods for prevention and mitigation of geohazards.

Learning outcome

Knowledge
This course is about dealing with uncertainty: It’s better to be probably right than exactly wrong!
The candidate should have knowledge of:
- How to characterize and model uncertainties in geotechnical parameters (soils and rocks), quantify variability in soil profiles, loading and resistance factors as well as the calculation methods
- Describing and formulating a geotechnical problem using a reliability approach
- Incorporating uncertainties in conventional geotechnical analyses
- Performing hazard analyses and consequence analyses of vulnerability and elements at risk
- Performing reliability/risk and sensitivity analyses
- In particular making quantitative evaluation of hazards related to slope or foundation failures, avalanches and earthquakes
- Considering risk acceptance/tolerance criteria
- Considering risk management and reduction measures (reliability based decision-making and mitigation).

Skills
The candidate can:
- Identify sources of uncertainties in a given geotechnical problem, define relevant and critical failure modes or unwanted events
- Assess probability of occurrence
- Plan and perform reliability/risk analyses
- Calculate/predict consequences
- Make decisions based on reliability analyses
- Recommend actions for risk reduction and/or risk mitigation.

General competence
The candidate can:
- Make sound engineering judgments with a special focus on numerical simulations in geomechanics
- Develop sustainable solutions for our built environment
- Compose clear presentation
- Work in teams.

Learning methods and activities

Lecture, term project, assignments. If there is a re-sit examination, the examination form may be changed from written to oral.

Compulsory assignments

• Assignments

Recommended previous knowledge

BSc degree in Civil Engineering or equivalent. Basic courses in geology and geotechnics. Introductory understanding of probability and statistics.

Course materials

Lecture notes presented by the geotechnical division.