Background and activities
My research interests include the onset and dynamics of resistance movements in authoritarian states, especially how variations in organizational participation influence the long and short-term outcomes of these movements. I am a PI on the 'Anatomy of Resistance Campaigns' (ARC) project which aims to understand how different networks of organizations in collective dissent influence the prospects of sustainable democratization. I am also interested in understanding the onset of armed conflicts, the use of violence against civilians by armed groups in war and understanding the structure and dynamics of historical and non-western state systems.
Scientific, academic and artistic work
A selection of recent journal publications, artistic productions, books, including book and report excerpts. See all publications in the database
- (2020) Introducing the Targeted Mass Killing Dataset for the Study and Forecasting of Mass Atrocities. Journal of Conflict Resolution.
- (2020) States and their International Relations Since 1816: Introducing Version 2 of the International System(s) Dataset (ISD). International Interactions. vol. 46 (2).
- (2020) War, Interaction Capacity and the Structures of State Systems. International Theory.
- (2018) Striking it Free? Organized labor and the outcomes of civil resistance. Journal of Global Security Studies (JoGGS). vol. 3 (3).
- (2017) Geography and the outcomes of civil resistance and civil war. Third World Quarterly. vol. 38 (7).
- (2017) Elections, Ethnicity, and Political Instability. Comparative Political Studies. vol. 50 (10).
- (2017) Between Eurocentrism and Babel: A Framework for the Analysis of States, State Systems, and International Orders. International Studies Quarterly. vol. 61 (2).
- (2017) Genocide Forecasting: Past Accuracy and New Forecasts to 2020. Journal of Genocide Research.
- (2017) The Policy Value of Quantitative Atrocity Forecasting Models. RUSI Journal. vol. 16 (2).
- (2015) ‘Capital punishment’ Bargaining and the geography of civil war. Journal of Peace Research. vol. 52 (2).
- (2015) Alternative international systems? System structure and violent conflict in nineteenth-century West Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. Review of International Studies. vol. 41 (4).
- (2014) Manufacturing Dissent: Modernization and the Onset of Major Nonviolent Resistance Campaigns. Journal of Conflict Resolution. vol. 60 (2).
- (2014) Explaining political jiu-jitsu: Institution-building and the outcomes of regime violence against unarmed protests. Journal of Peace Research. vol. 51 (5).
- (2013) Forecasting the onset of genocide and politicide: Annual out-of-sample forecasts on a global dataset, 1988–2003. Journal of Peace Research. vol. 50 (4).
- (2013) Introducing the international system (s) dataset (ISD), 1816–2011. International Interactions. vol. 39 (5).
Part of book/report
- (2017) Mass Killing. The Wiley Handbook of Violence and Aggression.
- (2016) Economic Risk Factors and Predictive Modeling of Genocides and Other Mass Atrocities. Economic Aspects of Genocides, Other Mass Atrocities, and Their Prevention.