Research
My research investigates climate policy design, energy system planning, and energy market economics. My approach is interdisciplinary with a focus on operations research, economics, and engineering. The research questions I focus on are also informed by perspectives from political science, finance, and natural sciences.
My PhD focuses on the impact of investor uncertainty and risk aversion on the clean energy transition and on how climate policies should account for investment risk. I am developing stochastic optimization models that address these questions in the contexts of power system planning and EV charging station investments.
The pace of the clean energy transition is out of line with governments' climate change goals. The first publication of my PhD investigates the extent to which passenger vehicles must be electrified for nations to reach 2C and 1.5C climate targets. Based on a meta-analysis of decarbonization pathways, we find that most vehicles must be zero-emission by 2050. Using fleet turnover modeling, we show that this requires an acceleration of electric vehicle sales and of the retirement of internal combustion engine vehicles.
The second publication of my PhD investigates how policy can accelerate investment in EV charging stations by accounting for the risks faced by private-sector investors using real options modeling. In my third project, I am exploring how power system decarbonization is impacted by investor uncertainty, risk aversion, and the incompleteness of risk markets. For this purpose I am developing new stochastic optimization and game theoretic equilibrium methods for modeling power system expansion under uncertainty.
Bio
I am currently a PhD Candidate at NTNU, a Research Affiliate at the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, and a Superforecaster at Good Judgment.
Previously, I was a Senior Research Associate at MIT CEEPR, and a Senior Carbon Market Analyst at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon.
I have testified before legislators on climate policy, served as a consultant to government officials on carbon pricing, and briefed senior staff at Fortune Global 500 companies. My work on the reform of the European Emissions Trading System was featured in the EU Parliament and the European Commission, “contributing to a cool-headed debate” in the words of one policy maker. My research has also been quoted in the media including Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Politico, BBC, and others.
I hold a M.Sc. from MIT’s Technology and Policy Program and a B.A. in mathematical economics from Colorado College.
You can find my publications at https://emildimanchev.com
