Emily Grace Simmonds
Background and activities
My work focuses on how biological systems respond to abiotic drivers, specifically, how individuals and populations respond to climate changes. Much of my work has centred on using mathematical models to project how population size and structure is altered by different climate change scenarios.
My current research explores how we can predict reponses of speices and communities to climate change. There are two main themes to this work. The first investigates the role of uncertainty in predictive models, determining how we can best quantify and report uncertainty. The second looks at how model complexity can impact predictive performance.
Select older publications
Simmonds, Emily G.; Sheldon, Ben C.; Coulson, Tim; Cole, Ella F. (2017) Incubation behaviour, driven by ambient temperature variation, improve synchrony between hatch dates and caterpillar preak in a wild bird population. Ecology and Evolution 7(22)
Simmonds, Emily G.; Coulson, Tim (2015) Analysis of phenotypic change in relation to climatic drivers in a population of Soay sheep Ovis aries. Oikos 124(5)
Kidd, Lindall R.; Sheldon, Ben C.; Simmonds, Emily G.; Cole, Ella F. (2015) Who escapes detection? Quantifying the causes and consequences of sampling biases in a long-term field study. Journal of Animal Ecology 84(6)
Scientific, academic and artistic work
- (2019) Data integration for large-scale models of species distributions. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. vol. 35 (1).
- (2019) Cue identification in phenology: A case study of the predictive performance of current statistical tools. Journal of Animal Ecology. vol. 88 (9).
- (2019) Testing the effect of quantitative genetic inheritance in structured models on projections of population dynamics. Oikos.