Background and activities

Demand side flexibility as an alternative to investments in the transmission grid

The correct socio-economic choice between grid investment and the use of demand flexibility is dependent on good knowledge about the price and availibility of this flexibility in the future. My thesis has as goal to provide this knowledge by looking at the price sensitivity of consumers (households, commercial and public buildings) and their response to various measures. These results can be used to provide better forecasts for maximum demand including flexibility in urban areas. Better forecasts are important to assess whether there is a need for increased capacity in the grid at all.

Main objective of research

The project will provide empirical based knowledge and research on how demand flexibility will affect the peak load in the future and how it can and should be included in demand forecasts to avoid overinvestment in the grid and to contribute to a cost effective and secure power system.

Description

The research is focused on households, commercial and public buildings in city regions. In addition, the project will be limited to implicit demand flexibility, meaning demand response triggered by price signals from variable power price and grid tariffs.

The research will be based on the analysis of empirical data from different sources, as data from Statnetts operations, Elhub, Nordpool, existing demo projects, and the design and execution of a new experiment on implicit demand flexibility. Statistical analyses will be used to quantify the existing and future price elasticity of the end users. In addition, statistical analyses will be used to determine what parameters have the highest impact on the price elasticity.

Research will also be performed on the usability of variable grid tariffs for peak reduction and how the available demand flexibility potential in a specific region can be identified based on data from Elhub and/or data from surveys.

Innovation potential and possible applications

The results of the research will be used in Statnett's demand forecasts and in the analyses of future investments in the transmission grid. A short list of expected results that can be applicated is:

  • Representative and quantified numbers for the expected demand response from households, commercial and public buildings triggered by price signals from power market and grid tariff (implicit demand flexibility)

  • Results on expected demand reduction and shifting from peak hours dependent on different parameters as price, building characteristics, flexible electricity demand sources (heating, warm water boiler, electric car, ventilation, PV, etc.), smart equipment for control of electricity and feedback, local climate etc.

  • Quantification of the consequence of implicit demand flexibility on the demand peak in Statnett's demand forecasts and therewith as an alternative to grid investments

  • Understanding of the effects on the demand response of different values of the parameters in the proposed grid tariffs for the distribution grid and how they can be used to reduce the peak demand in Statnetts grid

  • Method to obtain information about remaining demand flexibility in a specific region based on Elhub-data

The expected results will have an immediate benefit for Statnett and other grid companies as outlined here:

  • Improved long term demand forecasts with credible inclusion of demand flexibility

  • Realistic estimates of the potential and cost of demand flexibility will be used directly in Statnett's socio-economic assessments of new grid investments and can lead to cheaper solutions

  • Increased knowledge for distribution grid companies on how to design an optimal grid tariff that takes into account the potential savings in both the distribution and transmission grid

Scientific, academic and artistic work

A selection of recent journal publications, artistic productions, books, including book and report excerpts. See all publications in the database

Journal publications

Part of book/report

  • Bjørgum, Astrid; Welte, Thomas Michael; Hofmann, Matthias. (2015) Life cycle cost analysis for corrosion protective coatings -offshore wind turbines. Life Cycle Costing. For the Analysis, Management and Maintenance of Civil Engineering Infrastructure.
  • Hofmann, Matthias; Gjerde, Oddbjørn Idar; Kjølle, Gerd Hovin; Gramme, Eivind; Hernes, Johan G.; Foosnæs, Jan Andor. (2013) Developing indicators for monitoring vulnerability of power lines - case studies. CIRED 2013 Electricity Distribution Systems for a Sustainable Future.
  • Hofmann, Matthias; Kjølle, Gerd Hovin; Gjerde, Oddbjørn Idar. (2012) Development of indicators to monitor vulnerabilities in power systems. 11th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference and the Annual European Safety and Reliability Conference 2012, 25-29 June 2012, Helsinki, Finland.
  • Kjølle, Gerd Hovin; Gjerde, Oddbjørn Idar; Hofmann, Matthias. (2012) Monitoring Vulnerability in Power Systems : extraordinary Events, Analysis Framework and Development of Indicators. 12th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems.

Report/dissertation

  • Wolfgang, Ove; Askeland, Magnus; Backe, Stian; Fagerstrøm, Jonathan; Crespo del Granado, Pedro; Hofmann, Matthias; Jaehnert, Stefan; Kvellheim, Ann Kristin; Maranon-Ledesma, Hector; Midthun, Kjetil Trovik. (2019) Prosumers' role in the future energy system. 2019.
  • Wolfgang, Ove; Askeland, Magnus; Backe, Stian; Fagerstrøm, Jonathan; Crespo del Granado, Pedro; Hofmann, Matthias; Jaehnert, Stefan; Kvellheim, Ann Kristin; Marañon-Ledesma, Hector; Midthun, Kjetil Trovik; Seljom, Pernille Merethe Sire; Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe; Sæle, Hanne; Throndsen, William. (2018) Prosumers’ role in the future energy system. 2018. ISBN 978-82-93198-27-7.
  • Wolfgang, Ove; Askeland, Magnus; Backe, Stian; Fagerstrøm, Jonathan; Del Granado, Pedro Crespo; Hofmann, Matthias; Jaehnert, Stefan; Kvellheim, Ann Kristin; Maranon-Ledesma, Hector; Midthun, Kjetil Trovik; Seljom, Pernille Merethe Sire; Skjølsvold, Tomas Moe; Sæle, Hanne; Throndsen, William. (2018) Prosumers' role in the future energy system. 2018. ISBN 978-82-93198-27-7.
  • Sperstad, Iver Bakken; Kolstad, Magne Lorentzen; Hofmann, Matthias. (2017) Technical documentation of version 3.3 of the NOWIcob tool. 2017. ISBN 978-82-594-3577-4. SINTEF Energi. Rapport (TR A7374).
  • Sperstad, Iver Bakken; Kolstad, Magne Lorentzen; Hofmann, Matthias. (2017) User guide for Version 3.3 of the NOWIcob tool. 2017. ISBN 978-82-594-3575-0. SINTEF Energi. Rapport (TR A7372).
  • Hofmann, Matthias; Kjølle, Gerd Hovin; Gjerde, Oddbjørn. (2013) Vulnerability indicators for electric power grids. 2013. ISBN 9788259435385. SINTEF Energi. Rapport (TR A7276).