Course - Geohazards and Risk - TBA5150
Geohazards and Risk
About
About the course
Course content
The course will include:
- terminology used in risk assessment
- a brief insight into various geohazards landslide types, debris flow, rock fall
- a brief introduction of soil mechanics and slope stability analysis
- identification of sources and types of uncertainties in problems related to geohazards
- discussion of the potential benefits of a probabilistic compared to a deterministic approach
- review relevant statistical and probabilistic theories needed to develop the methodologies and to interpret the results of the probabilistic analyses
- application of probabilistic analysis as applied to geotechnical analysis, such as First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method and the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), event tree and logic tree construction, reliability of "systems"
- methods for prevention and mitigation of geohazards
- discussion on risk reduction strategies e.g., F-N diagram
- spatial variability and its impact
- basic knowledge of consultation
- utility function for optimalization and sustainability consideration
Learning outcome
Knowledge
This course is about dealing with uncertainties in geotechnics and geohazards: Its better to be probably right than exactly wrong! The candidate should have knowledge of:
- Slope stability analysis in geotechnical context
- How to characterize and model uncertainties in geotechnical parameters (soils and rocks), quantify variability in soil profiles, loading and resistance factors as well as the calculation methods
- Describing and formulating a geotechnical problem using a reliability approach
- Incorporating uncertainties in conventional geotechnical analyses
- Performing hazards related to slope or foundation failures, avalanches and earthquakes
- Considering risk acceptance/tolerance criteria
- Considering risk management and reduction measures (reliability based decision-making and mitigation).
Skills
The candidate can:
- Identify sources of uncertainties in a given geotechnical problem, define relevant and critical failure modes or unwanted events
- Assess probability of occurrence
- Plan and perform reliability/risk analyses
- Calculate/predict consequences
- Make optimized decisions based on reliability analyses
- Recommend actions for risk reduction and/or risk mitigation and contribute to sustainable solutions.
- Code algorithms for modelling automation and implementation of optimization
General competence
The candidate can:
- Make sound engineering judgments with a special focus on numerical simulations in geomechanics
- Develop sustainable solutions for our built environment
- Compose clear presentation
- Coding
- Work in teams.
Digital competence
The candidate can:
- Evaluate statistical features (mean, variance, probabilistic distribution and spatial correlation) of data
- Implement automation of algorithms through coding
- Implement optimization to achieve multiple goals
- Establish reliability analysis models through coding
Sustainable competence
The candidate can:
- Evaluate hazard, consequence and risk to improve safety in geotechnics and geohazards
- Establish simplified utility functions to facilitate decision-makings to strike a balance among rivaling targets: safety (risk), investment, carbon emission
- Implement sensitivity analysis to identify the most pronounced factors
Learning methods and activities
Lecture, tutorials, term project, assignments.
Term project:
involves a role playing game which the candidate is given a role as consultant or government staff to evaluate different designs with given data. They are asked to extract statistical features of these data, use correct reliability methods to assess the risks of each design and probably give even more cutting edge designs. They will need to use coding to script most process so they run automatically and give quick result at once. At the end of the day, an optimized design should be provided to achieve safety, economy and environmental goals. All groups will deliver a report and give a presentation to their clients (examiners), to ensure effective risk communication.
Compulsory assignments
- Assignments
Further on evaluation
The exam is divided in two parts which together add up to the final grade: Written school exam (65 %) and group assignment (35%).
Obligatory assignments: The candidates should submit three mandatory assignments before they are allowed to take the final exam.
If there is a re-sit examination, the examination form may be changed from written to oral. Re-sit examination is offered for the written exam only. Re-sit or re-take of the other part of the assessment must be done in the semester when the course is taught. For a re-sit of the assignment part, or to improve the grade in the course, all assessments during the course must be re-taken.
The parts of the assessment is given a letter grade. A failing grade on a part of the assessment can be included in the final grade.
Recommended previous knowledge
BSc degree in Civil Engineering or equivalent. Basic courses in geotechnics. Introductory understanding of probability and statistics. Basic understanding of coding or motivation to learn coding. But we can still go through and deepen your understanding of statistics and probability in semester start.
Course materials
Lecture notes presented by the geotechnical division.
Subject areas
- Marine Civil Engineering
- Hydraulic Engineering
- Structural Engineering
- Refrigeration and Air Conditioning - Refrigeration Plants and Heat Pumps
- Railway Engineering
- Highway Engineering
- Geotechnical Engineering
- Geology
- Technological subjects