The principal objective with this research project is to systematically develop new knowledge, competence and methods towards quantifiable methods using simulation optimization and systems theory for handling risk and uncertainty related to ocean systems deployed in demanding physical and commercial operating environments.

Ocean engineering systems, typically related to transport services and offshore petroleum projects, are often complex and involve a high degree of uncertainty related to their future operating context. Uncertain factors, such as oil prices and changing environmental regulations, are usually highly influential for the performance of these projects and introduce risks for investors in the capital-intensive maritime industry.

Focus will be on methods and models for handling design stage risk and uncertainty resulting in value-robust solutions, i.e. design solutions that are capable of delivering value to key stakeholders throughout the lifecycle of the system, also when facing unforeseen changes in key context parameters. This will include modelling of alternative future scenarios with corresponding probability distributions, and corresponding design space exploration studies to identify preferable system design configurations.

The project will develop further insight into how system-level properties, such as versatility, flexibility and changeability will be of key importance for the next generation ocean systems, both to meet the immediate demands of the market, while at the same time being robust towards changes in the vessel´s future operating context. The project will use the design of the next generation offshore subsea construction vessels as a primary case.